Jeremy Siegel "Future of Stock Market"

SeminarでJeremy Siegelのレクチャーを聞くことができた。とてもエネルギッシュな方で話は面白かった。ただ、Marketを予想する側面がとても強いように感じてそこは少し違和感があった。MarketがどうなるかわからないというスタンスのWarren BuffettやCharlie Mungerの方が正直で且つ規律があるように感じられた。Jeremy Siegelのコメントを聞くとマーケットタイミングで儲けようとしたくなってしまう気がした。Portfolioの構成にあたって助言を参考にするのは大切かもしれないが、個別銘柄選びには気を付けた方がいいのかもしれない。

• When liquidity goes, the price of stcok goes up. We are seein unprecedented liquidity. Because the money went into the pockets of individuals, people wil spend when the economy is reopened.

M1 Money Supply

• Usually, return of stocks is the inverse of PER. Because the current PER is about 20, the expectation is around 5%. The spread with the treasury is 6%, roughly the double of historical trend. This means that the stocks will perform well but treasury will be the worst option.

Total Return

• The end of 60/40. Holding 40% of bonds will increase the chance of losing the money for retires. Although the stocks will be volitile, the low return expectation of bonds are significantly problematic.
• Because the source of the revenue of small cap stocks are more directly tied with economic activities, small cap stocks will perform better than large caps once the economy opens up.
• Stay away from comercial real estate!